Spatial Validation of Land Use Change Models Using Multiple Assessment Techniques: A Case Study of Transition Potential Models

Using land use and cover change (LUCC) models for the urban growth planning, environmental assessment, and decision-making needs the establishment of an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. The objective of this research is to explore the importance of using multiple assessment techniques in order to fairly evaluate the performance of land use models. An application is conducted by using the Land Change Modeler for Ecological Sustainability (LCM) which is an empirical and transition potential model. LCM is applied to model the agricultural to developed areas transition in Rennes metropolitan area (France). The land demand is estimated using the Markov Chain model; whereas, the transition potential map is implemented using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) method based on historical changes and driving variables. The model performance is assessed based on a variety of the most commonly used validation techniques. At the study area level, the correctness and disagreement analysis shows that LCM performs better at predicting the amount than the allocation of developed areas. Additionally, landscape metrics reveal that LCM tends to predict a fragmented urban form, which seems evident because of the large number of the individual urban patches. At the municipality level, the error budget analysis shows that the model performance, which varies highly between different subareas, needs to be improved. Moreover, the cross-tabulation between the transition potential map and both the observed and the predicted agricultural to developed areas transitions reveals that the order of the transition potential values does not perfectly fit the observed change; whereas, the predicted change is not solely limited to areas with high potential.     

Genetic diversity and population structure of the invasive plant <Emphasis Type="Italic">Solanum rostratum</Emphasis> in China

The level of genetic diversity of 13 Chinese populations of S. rostratum was investigated using nine microsatellite loci. The genetic diversity of the Weisanlu population in Hebei province was the highest and the Hohhot population was the lowest. The genetic differentiation among the populations was highly significant (P < 0.001). A total of 68.54% of the total genetic variation of population was within populations, and the genetic variation between populations accounted for 31.46%. The long-distance dispersal of its seeds by human transport mainly resulted in the rapid dispersal of S. rostratum in China.     

Vertical and horizontal distributions of microbial abundances and enzymatic activities in propylene-glycol-affected soils

The natural microbial activity in the unsaturated soil is vital for protecting groundwater in areas where high loads of biodegradable contaminants are supplied to the surface, which usually is the case for airports using aircraft de-icing fluids (ADF) in the cold season. Horizontal and vertical distributions of microbial abundance were assessed along the western runway of Oslo Airport (Gardermoen, Norway) to monitor the effect of ADF dispersion with special reference to the component with the highest chemical oxygen demand (COD), propylene glycol (PG). Microbial abundance was evaluated by several biondicators: colony-forming units (CFU) of some physiological groups (aerobic and anaerobic heterotrophs and microscopic fungi), most probable numbers (MPN) of PG degraders, selected catabolic enzymatic activities (fluorescein diacetate (FDA) hydrolase, dehydrogenase, and β-glucosidase). High correlations were found between the enzymatic activities and microbial counts in vertical soil profiles. All microbial abundance indicators showed a steep drop in the first meter of soil depth. The vertical distribution of microbial abundance can be correlated by a decreasing exponential function of depth. The horizontal trend of microbial abundance (evaluated as total aerobic CFU, MPN of PG-degraders, and FDA hydrolase activity) assessed in the surface soil at an increasing distance from the runway is correlated negatively with the PG and COD loads, suggesting the relevance of other chemicals in the modulation of microbial growth. The possible role of potassium formate, component of runway de-icers, has been tested in the laboratory by using mixed cultures of Pseudomonas spp., obtained by enrichment with a selective PG medium from soil samples taken at the most contaminated area near the runway. The inhibitory effect of formate on the growth of PG degraders is proven by the reduction of biomass yield on PG in the presence of formate.     

Road traffic impact on urban water quality: a step towards integrated traffic,air and stormwater modelling

Methods for simulating air pollution due to road traffic and the associated effects on stormwater runoff quality in an urban environment are examined with particular emphasis on the integration of the various simulation models into a consistent modelling chain. To that end, the models for traffic, pollutant emissions, atmospheric dispersion and deposition, and stormwater contamination are reviewed. The present study focuses on the implementation of a modelling chain for an actual urban case study, which is the contamination of water runoff by cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) in the Grigny urban catchment near Paris, France. First, traffic emissions are calculated with traffic inputs using the COPERT4 methodology. Next, the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants is simulated with the Polyphemus line source model and pollutant deposition fluxes in different subcatchment areas are calculated. Finally, the SWMM water quantity and quality model is used to estimate the concentrations of pollutants in stormwater runoff. The simulation results are compared to mass flow rates and concentrations of Cd, Pb and Zn measured at the catchment outlet. The contribution of local traffic to stormwater contamination is estimated to be significant for Pb and, to a lesser extent, for Zn and Cd; however, Pb is most likely overestimated due to outdated emissions factors. The results demonstrate the importance of treating distributed traffic emissions from major roadways explicitly since the impact of these sources on concentrations in the catchment outlet is underestimated when those traffic emissions are spatially averaged over the catchment area.     

Impacts on effluent contaminants from mine sites: risk assessment,fate, and distribution of pollution at basin scale

The environmental implications of mining activities are of worldwide concern. An environmental evaluation at the basin level was conducted because of widespread mining in Cajamarca in Northern Peru. A sediment monitoring program was developed at the Jequetepeque basin, located in Cajamarca. A total of 16 sites were monitored at three different times between June 2009 and July 2010, and a total of 42 samples were collected. All samples were analyzed by microwave digestion and by a sequential extraction scheme following the three-stage European Community Bureau of Reference (three-stage BCR) protocol. Trace element mobilization from the sediments to the water column was assessed by the risk assessment code (RAC). Spatial and temporal distribution of trace elements was evaluated by principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis. Cd, Zn, As, and Pb showed the highest concentrations independent of season. Notably, Cu concentration and mobility increased during the wet season for all samples. Additionally, Hg concentration and mobility increased during the wet season near the mine sites. According to the enrichment factor, the highest enrichments of Cd, Zn, Pb, and As were related to mine runoff. The effect of trace elements near the mine sites at the Jequetepeque basin was considered a significant threat to the environment due to Cd, Zn, Pb, and As, and the concentrations of Cu and Hg were also considered a concern. This work establishes a baseline for the environmental quality status of the Jequetepeque basin that may support water quality management in Peru.     

Fate of nickel in a lime-stabilized biosolid,a calcareous soil and soil–biosolid mixtures

Soil contamination with anthropogenic metals resulting from biosolid application is widespread around the world. To better predict the environmental fate and mobility of contaminants, it is critical to study the capacity of biosolid-amended soils to retain and release metals. In this paper, nickel adsorption onto a calcareous soil, a lime-stabilized biosolid, and soil–biosolid mixtures (30, 75, and 150 t biosolid/ha) was studied in batch experiments. Sorption experiments showed that (1) Ni adsorption was higher onto the biosolid than the calcareous soil, and (2) biosolid acted as an adsorbent in the biosolid–soil mixtures by increasing Ni retention capacity. The sorption tests were complemented with the estimation of Ni adsorption reversibility by successive applications of extraction solutions with water, calcium (100 mg/L), and oxalic acid (equivalent to 100 mg carbon/L). It has been shown that Ni desorption rates in soil and biosolid-amended soils were lower than 30 % whatever the chemical reagent, indicating that Ni was strongly adsorbed on the different systems. This adsorption/desorption hysteresis effect was particularly significant at the highest biosolid concentration (150 t/ha). Finally, an adsorption empirical model was used to estimate the maximum permissible biosolid application rate using French national guideline. It has been shown that desorption effects should be quantitatively considered to estimate relevant biosolid loadings.     

Bages-Sigean and Canet-St Nazaire lagoons (France): physico-chemical characteristics and contaminant concentrations (Cu,Cd, PCBs and PBDEs) as environmental quality of water and sediment

Environmental characteristics in water and sediments of two contrasted coastal Mediterranean lagoons, Bages-Sigean and Canet-St Nazaire, were measured over a three season survey. The urban pollution (treatment plant discharges) is very important in Canet-St Nazaire lagoon reflecting untreated sewages, while in Bages-Sigean, the northern part appears more impacted due to larger anthropogenic inputs. Dissolved Cd concentrations are on the whole similar in both lagoons, whereas Cu concentrations are by far higher in lagoon Canet-St Nazaire. Cu concentrations appear to be highly dependent on dissolved organic carbon whereas salinity seems to control Cd variations. Concerning the sediments, the confined northern part of lagoon Bages-Sigean shows organic carbon and total nitrogen enrichment whereas lipid concentrations are much higher in the Canet-St Nazaire lagoon. Cu complexation seems to be strongly related to organic matter as evidenced by the two significant positive relationships, on one hand between Cu and organic carbon, and on the other hand, between Cu and lipids. On the contrary, Cd concentrations appear to be mainly controlled by carbonates. PCBs and PBDEs were detected only in sediments and show relatively low concentrations compared to similar lagoon environments. Regarding the sediment quality guidelines, Cd, Cu and PCBs in both lagoons did not exceed any Probable Effect Concentration (PEC).     

Gemfibrozil modulates cytochrome P450 and peroxisome proliferation-inducible enzymes in the liver of the yellow European eel (Anguilla anguilla)

The human lipid regulator gemfibrozil (GEM) has been shown to induce peroxisome proliferation in rodents leading to hepatocarcinogenesis. Since GEM is found at biological active concentrations in the aquatic environment, the present study investigates the effects of this drug on the yellow European eel (Anguilla anguilla). Eels were injected with different concentrations of GEM (0.1 to 200 μg/g) and sampled 24- and 96-h post-injection. GEM was shown to inhibit CYP1A, CYP3A and CYP2K-like catalytic activities 24-h post-injection, but at 96-h post-injection, only CYP1A was significantly altered in fish injected with the highest GEM dose. On the contrary, GEM had little effect on the phase II enzymes examined (UDP-glucuronyltransferase and glutathione-S-transferase). Peroxisome proliferation inducible enzymes (liver peroxisomal acyl-CoA oxidase and catalase) were very weakly induced. No evidence of a significant effect on the endocrine system of eels was observed in terms of plasmatic steroid levels or testosterone esterification in the liver.     

Failure rate evaluation with influencing factors

A new methodology for failure rate evaluation with influencing factors is proposed. A quantitative part allows integrating potential available data from feedback. Then, a qualitative analysis deals with influencing factors such as design, environment, and use to provide more coherent and argued results. The main idea is to use some criteria to fix the failure rate within a prior interval, according to the influencing factor states. To this end, the system is broken up into main component groups. When a component group is susceptible to an influencing factor, its baseline failure rate is multiplied by the relevant influencing coefficient. A seven-step methodology is presented to define the model, identify and rate the influencing factors, set indicator functions taking the uncertainties into account, and calculate the influencing coefficients. The proposed methodology is global enough to be usable for a large number of safety instrumented systems and influencing factors. For example, an application regarding safety pressure relief valves is given. The prospect is for more efficient risk management by acting both on systems and influencing factors.     

The Fallacies of Concurrent Climate Policy Efforts

Climate policy has assumed an extreme degree of urgency in the international debate in recent years. This article begins by taking a critical look at the scientific underpinnings of the efforts to stabilize the climate. It points to several serious question marks on the purported relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, and expresses distrust about claims of impending catastrophes related to rising sea levels, hurricanes, and spread of infectious disease. It then reviews the concurrent climate policy efforts and concludes that they are incoherent, misguided and unduly costly, and that they have so far had no perceptible impact on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The exceedingly ambitious policy plans currently under preparation suffer from similar fallacies. For these reasons, but also because of the remaining scientific doubts and the exorbitant costs that have to be incurred, skepticism is expressed about the preparedness to implement the climate policy plans currently on the table.